Published October 05, 2008 10:44 pm - The Twins should think first before jumping into a trade with Delmon Young.
Dealing Delmon? He’s still Young
Delmon Young hit .290 in his first season with the Twins, a season in which he turned 23 in September.
And the general consensus is that he was a disappointment, that the trade with Tampa Bay in which he was the centerpiece — Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan — hurt the Twins’ chances this year.
That perception feeds the notion that he will be on the move again this winter.
The Twins enter the offseason with five “regular” outfielders and only four lineup slots in which to put them.
Theoretically, they could share those jobs — instead of 600 plate appearances for each of four players, 480 for each of five players — but that sort of time share doesn’t appear to be one of Ron Gardenhire’s strengths as a manager. Gardenhire prefers a set lineup.
So a more likely outcome is that one of the five will be traded this offseason for infield or bullpen help. Young might be the one on the block.
Young is widely seen as a disappointment because
a) he didn’t match Torii Hunter’s numbers;
b) he didn’t drive in as many runs as he did in 2007;
c) he was frequently awkward in left field.
Young had 93 RBIs in 2007 for the then-Devil Rays; he had 69 this year. Since his batting average and slugging percentage were almost identical, the falloff probably comes from hitting sixth or seventh rather than fourth or fifth. He had 70 fewer at-bats in 2008 — but he scored 15 more runs, drew nine more walks and struck out 22 fewer times. He did develop as a hitter, but the improvements were subtle.
Subtle improvements in a hitter so young often pays off in coming seasons. Key concept here: Young’s age works powerfully in his favor.
Several years ago Bill James unveiled a stat he called “win shares,” a complex stat that took some 200 pages to completely describe. It attempts to parcel out the credit for a team’s victories among its players, three win shares per team win.
Young, in 2007, at age 21, earned 17 win shares for Tampa Bay, according to Baseball Info Solutions, which uses James’ formula. This season, according to The Hardball Times Web site — which uses a slightly different formula than James — Young had 14 win shares.
In the New Historical Baseball Abstract — one of the books in which James unleashed this stat — James, writing about Ryne Sandberg, says a 22-year-old rookie who compiles 14 to 18 win shares has a 20 to 35 percent chance of reaching the Hall of Fame.