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Fri, Jan 09 2009 

Published November 04, 2008 12:45 am -
It’s Week 10 of the NFL season and that means the clock is beginning to tick if you’re looking for a playoff spot in your fantasy league.


Ripple effect hits nearly all fantasy owners


By Jim Rueda
Free Press Sports Editor

It’s Week 10 of the NFL season and that means the clock is beginning to tick if you’re looking for a playoff spot in your fantasy league.

It’s been a wild season with a lot of big-name players either getting hurt or just playing ineffectively. The waiver wire has been a hot commodity for most fantasy franchises.

Most of the hullabaloo can be blamed on the ‘Ripple Effect’ which has to do with previously high-quality quarterbacks under performing in 2008. Marquee guys such as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Hasselbeck are all key components of the Ripple Effect.

Other QBs, who may not have been expected to post elite numbers, but were still counted on to be viable fantasy starters, have also participated in the Effect. They include Derek Anderson, Jon Kitna and Mark Bulger.

The Effect occurs when a highly-touted quarterback under performs. That usually leads to that quarterback’s receivers, and often times even his running backs, also under achieving..

Tom Brady at New England is a classic example. When he went down for the season with a knee injury, the value of wide receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker took a serious hit. Their value has started to increase recently with back-up QB Matt Cassell starting to improve, but they are still not producing anywhere near what fantasy owners hoped when they drafted them.

And because the New England passing is no longer a big threat to score, the running game has also been sub-par. The backfield has been hit by injuries all season but, no matter who the starting guy has been from week to week, his value has been OK at best.

Peyton Manning at Indianapolis is another good example. He has not be nearly as effective as he was in previous seasons and the statistics for his wideouts prove it. Reggie Wayne was drafted as a top-five receiver in almost every league but, statistically, he’s not even in the top 10 in most leagues. Marvin Harrison and, until this past Sunday, Anthony Gonzalez, have been non-factors.

Those receivers and running backs that have been able to survive the Ripple Effect can usually be found on teams that have quality back-up quarterbacks.

At Arizona, projected starter Matt Leonard was benched even before the season began and replaced by Kurt Warner. The Cardinals’ wideouts — Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald — have still managed to thrive because Warner is playing lights out football.

You can’t say the same for the receivers in Cleveland, Detroit or Seattle. Those back-up QBs have struggled and so has everyone else on the team.

On Sunday, two more big-name guys behind center went down when Houston’s Matt Schaub suffered a knee injury and Chicago’s Kyle Orton suffered a high ankle sprain. Both players are expected to be out at least a month.

The good news for fantasy players is that both back-up QBs should be able to post decent numbers. Houston’s Sage Rosenfels has always been a good fantasy QB when he’s been given the chance to play and Chicago’s Rex Grossman has had his moments as a fantasy starter. Grossman won’t produce nearly as well as Orton did, but should still be serviceable.

Other quarterbacks who might still be on your waiver wire this week and may be able to help are Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, Kansas City’s Tyler Thigpen, Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and Miami’s Chad Pennington. They’re not world beaters but they’re a heck of a lot better than the likes of Brooks Bollinger, Seneca Wallace and Dan Orlovsky.

As for surviving the Ripple Effect, the best you can do is keep playing the wire, try to work out some trades, and stop holding on to big names who haven’t produced all season.



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